Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1002.939054 1149.723692 1318.282801 1527.923405 1784.133386 2090.311523 2.488849e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 778.355743 957.321237 1183.703175 1497.456579 1931.643992 2528.267839 3.442269e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 682.143978 875.605215 1135.445909 1521.709197 2103.278263 2986.594371 4.520060e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 618.518872 822.081415 1109.405288 1562.855786 2298.498732 3524.221126 5.929354e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 560.890358 766.037273 1067.186397 1566.079400 2427.576398 3983.311850 7.399119e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 506.504170 706.676795 1009.806380 1532.079027 2481.899124 4319.787980 8.785168e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 473.780041 675.288562 990.179811 1555.073905 2640.040381 4903.274355 1.107690e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 432.251620 625.505600 934.360749 1504.932924 2646.131204 5167.458550 1.271392e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 398.984926 585.468829 889.767504 1467.613149 2668.939173 5476.649247 1.471548e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 369.448241 548.745772 846.696005 1426.462651 2674.526201 5746.825313 1.682131e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 360.415082 544.870193 859.684676 1494.892192 2936.454215 6784.349260 2.290199e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 348.203095 534.384724 859.506055 1536.568619 3147.110022 7779.121193 3.027535e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 333.847820 520.580907 854.730048 1574.821358 3379.267143 9032.622078 4.199214e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 312.270381 492.540400 820.875080 1546.415488 3436.725260 9764.316181 5.272000e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 299.176858 478.357680 811.683365 1570.997984 3646.825285 11208.208937 7.457236e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 289.191174 468.893703 810.568804 1614.091259 3926.886302 13182.513326 1.137662e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 276.196966 452.708026 794.089650 1617.420385 4087.940244 14787.069715 1.631011e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 260.839448 430.895464 763.886568 1581.947788 4113.868901 15763.732354 2.141505e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 252.009417 420.888048 757.368434 1605.940691 4352.277487 18183.097794 3.506085e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 237.593104 399.057870 723.676290 1553.626775 4304.166970 18858.280203 4.513252e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 225.395699 380.828087 696.303336 1514.704941 4296.956672 19840.792510 6.168905e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 213.822670 363.150829 668.765517 1471.803744 4264.356090 20655.800360 8.366174e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 211.491998 363.697581 681.520538 1543.153656 4712.839375 25848.309091 2.431601e+06